Lewis Fry Richardson's attempt to compute a six-hour forecast by hand, using observations from 20 May 1910 and the equations of motion Vilhelm Bjerknes had proposed forecasting could be built on. The calculation, which took him weeks, predicted a surface pressure change many times larger than anything ever observed, a failure Richardson published anyway, along with the method, in 1922 as Weather Prediction by Numerical Process. The error was later traced to noisy, unfiltered wind data feeding a numerically unstable step in the method, a problem solved decades later once computers made shorter time steps affordable.
Facts
YearSourced to the subject's own account MethodSourced to the subject's own accountRichardson used a mathematical model of the principal features of the atmosphere and observational data from 7am on 20 May 1910 to calculate, by hand, what the weather would be six hours later from first principles (ab initio), applying Vilhelm Bjerknes's equations of motion. 1 Key FindingSourced to the subject's own accountThe hand calculation failed dramatically, predicting a 145-hectopascal pressure rise over six hours when pressure was actually nearly static; later analysis showed that with the noisy high-frequency terms filtered out, Richardson's underlying forecast was essentially accurate. 1 LocationSourced to the subject's own accountRichardson performed the calculation by hand while serving with a Quaker ambulance unit in France during the First World War. 1 Cross-Tradition Connections
Sources
1. Lewis Fry Richardson (Wikipedia)
WikipediaWikipedia, Lewis Fry Richardson, Numerical weather prediction sectionQuote, Wikipedia, Lewis Fry Richardson, Numerical weather prediction section
Richardson was serving with the Quaker ambulance unit in France
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