Decades of seismological research have established longer-run probabilistic hazard estimates for a given region, but no method has reliably forecast the precise time, location and magnitude of an individual future earthquake, and some researchers argue short-term prediction may be fundamentally impossible given how earthquakes nucleate.
What would resolve this A precursor signal, whether seismic, geochemical or geodetic, shown across many independent earthquakes to reliably precede rupture with enough lead time and specificity to issue an actionable short-term warning.
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